Senate races 2022 by Benjamin Wolfmeier

/ benjaminstrehl / Leave a comment

Senatorial races

AL:
Katie Britt (R) vs. Will Boyd (D): 63/35

AK:
Lisa Murkowski (R-inc.) vs. Kelly Tshibaka (R): 51.0/49.0

AZ:
Mark Kelly (D-inc.) vs. Blake Masters (R): 49.0/49.9

AR:
John Boozman (R-inc.) vs. Natalie James (D): 64.1/34.5

CA:
Alex Padilla (D-inc.) vs. Mark Meuser (R): 60/40

CO:
Michael Bennet (D-inc.) vs. Joe O‘Dea (R): 49.5/44.5

CT:
Richard Blumenthal (D-inc.) vs. Leora Levy (R): 51.7/45.3

FL:
Marco Rubio (R-inc.) vs. Val Demings (D): 53.0/44.5

GA:
Raphael Warnock (D-inc.) vs. Herschel Walker (R): 48.0/50.2

HI:
Brian Schatz (D-inc.) vs. Bob McDermott (R): 67.4/ 31.0

ID:
Mike Crapo (R-inc.) vs. David Roth (D): 69.2/28.3

IL:
Tammy Duckworth (D-inc.) vs. Kathy Salvi (R): 55.3/44.7

IN:
Todd Young (R-inc.) vs. Thomas McDermott (D): 59.0/39.0

IA:
Chuck Grassley (R-inc.) vs. Michael Franken (D): 57.5/42.5

KS:
Jerry Moran (R-inc.) vs. Mark Holland (D): 66.3/31.7

KY:
Rand Paul (R-inc.) vs. Charles Booker (lD): 62.4/37.6

LA:
John Kennedy (R-inc.) vs. 3 Democrats:
55.0/32.0

MD:
Chris Van Hollen (D-inc.) vs. Chris Chaffee (R): 58.0/42.0

MO:
Eric Schmitt (R) vs. Trudy Busch Valentine (D): 55.2/41.8

NV:
Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc.) vs. Adam Laxalt (R): 47.4/52.0

NH:
Maggie Hassan (D-inc.) vs. Don Bolduc (R): 49.8/49.3

NY:
Chuck Schumer (D-inc.) vs. Joe Pinion (R): 54.0/43.2

NC:
Ted Budd (R) vs. Cheri Beasley (D): 51.6/46.1

ND:
John Hoeven (R-inc.) vs. Katrina Christiansen (D): 68.0/ 28.7

OH:
J.D. Vance (R) vs. Tim Ryan (D): 54.4/45.6

OK:
James Lankford (R-inc.) vs. Madison Horn (D): 67.1/29.6

OR:
Ron Wyden (D-inc.) vs. Jo Rae Perkins (R): 56.8/43.1

PA:
Mehmet Oz (R) vs. John Fetterman (D): 50.2/47.7

SC:
Tim Scott (R-inc.) vs. Krystle Matthews (D): 62.3/37.7

SD:
John Thune (R-inc.) vs. Brian Bengs (D): 72.1/26.8

UT:
Mike Lee (R-inc.) vs. Evan McMullin (I): 52.8/37.2

VT:
Peter Welch (D-inc.) vs. Gerald Malloy (R): 62.5/24.8

WA:
Patty Murray (D-inc) vs. Tiffaney Smiley (R): 52.5/47.5

WI:
Ron Johnson (R-inc.) vs Mandela Barnes (D): 52.1/47.9

Gubernatorial races 2022 by Benjamin Wolfmeier

/ benjaminstrehl / Leave a comment

Gubernatorial races 2022

AL:
Kay Ivey (R-inc) vs. Yolanda Flowers (D): 66.9/32.1

AK:
Mike Dunleavy (R-inc.) vs. Les Gara (D): 59.6/40.4

AZ:
Kari Lake (R) vs. Katie Hobbs (D): 53/47

AR:
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) vs. Chris Jones (D): 59.5/39.5

CA:
Gavin Newsom (D-inc.) vs. Brian Dahle (R): 58.4/41.6

CO:
Jared Polis (D-inc.) vs. Heidi Ganahl (R): 53.5/42.7

CT:
Ned Lamont (D-inc.) vs. Bob Stefanowski (R): 51.0/47.8

FL:
Ron DeSantis (R-inc.) vs. Charlie Crist (D): 53.7/43.1

GA:
Brian Kemp (R-inc) vs. Stacey Abrams (D): 52.3/43.8

HI:
Josh Green (D) vs. Duke Aiona (R): 65/35

ID:
Brad Little (R-inc.) vs. Stephen Heidt (D): 64.7/32.8

IL:
J.B. Prittker (D-inc.) vs. Darren Bailey (R): 54/42

IA:
Kim Reynolds (R-inc.) vs. Deidre DeJear (D): 61.5/36.5

KS: Laura Kelly (D-inc.) vs. Derek Schmidt (R): 47.7/49.2

ME:
Janet Mills (D-inc) vs. Paul LePage (R): 50.5/46.8

MD:
Wes Moore (D) vs. Dan Cox (R): 58.0/39.5

MA:
Maura Healey (D) vs. Geoff Diehl (R): 59.0/39.0

MI:
Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc.) vs. Tudor Dixon (R): 48.7/49.5

MN:
Tim Walz (D-inc) vs. Scott Jensen (R): 51.3/44.9

NE:
Jim Pillen (R) vs. Carol Blood (D): 60/40

NV:
Steve Sisolak (D-inc.) vs. Joe Lombardo (R): 46.5/51.8

NH:
Chris Sununu (R-inc.) vs. Tom Sherman (D): 59.3/39.7

NM:
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-inc) vs. Mark Ronchetti (R): 49.8/48.5

NY:
Kathy Hochul (D-inc) vs. Lee Zeldin (R): 52.5/47.5

OH:
Mike DeWine (R-inc.) vs. Nan Whaley (D): 58.5/40.7

OK:
Kevin Stitt (R-inc) vs. Joy Hofmeister (D): 52.4/45.0

OR:
Tina Kotek (D) vs. Christine Drazan (R) vs. Betsy Johnson (I): 47/44/09

PA:
Josh Shapiro (D) vs. Doug Mastriano (R): 53.0/44.2

RI:
Dan McKee (D-inc.) vs. Ashley Kalus (R): 51.5/46.0

SC:
Henry McMaster (R-inc) vs. Joe Cunningham (D): 58/40

SD:
Kristi Noem (R-inc.) vs. Jamie Smith (D): 61.7/37.4

TN:
Bill Lee (R-inc.) vs. Jason Martin (D): 62/35

TX:
Greg Abbott (R-inc.) vs. Beto O‘Rourke: 55.2/42.7

VT:
Phil Scott (R-inc.) vs. Brenda Siegel (D): 61/37

WI:
Tony Evers (D-inc) vs. Tim Michels (R):
48.8/50.4

WY:
Mark Gordon (R-inc) vs. Theresia Livingston (D): 75.0/22.8

Analysis of my gubernatorial map 2020 by Benjamin Wolfmeier

/ benjaminstrehl / Leave a comment

Governor Races 2020

2019: GOP: 26 DEM: 24 IND: 00

2020: GOP: 27 DEM: 23 IND: 00
Toss-up: 

Take over: GOP: MT  

DE:My poll:
Julianne Murray 39.8% John Carney*51.4% Other 05.4%Public polls average:
Julianne Murray 26.0% John Carney*55%
My prediction:
Julianne Murray 42.4% John Carney*53.6% Other 04.0%
Results:
Julianne Murray 38.6% John Carney*59.5% Other 01.9%
Error by the public polls:
Julianne Murray -12.6% John Carney*-04.5%
Error based on my prediction:
Julianne Murray -04.0% John Carney*-05.9% Other +02.1%

IN:
My poll:
Eric Holcomb*50.9% Woody Myers 27.0% Donald Rainwater 13.1%
Public polls average:
Eric Holcomb*50.0% Woody Myers 39.0%
My prediction: 
Eric Holcomb: 54.7 Woody Myers 33.8% Donadl Rainwater 11.5%
Results:
Eric Holcomb*56.5% Woody Myers 32.1% Donald Rainwater 11.4%
Error by the public polls:
Eric Holcomb*-06.5% Woody Myers +06.9%
Error based on my prediction:
Eric Holcomb*-01.8% Woody Myers +01.7%Donald Rainwater +00.1%

MO:
My poll:
Mike Parson 53.8%* Nicole Galloway 40.7%
Public polls average:
Mike Parson 51.3%* Nicole Galloway 43.5%
My prediction:
Mike Parson 56.8%* Nicole Galloway 43.2%
Results:
Mike Parson 57.2%*Nicole Galloway 40.6%
Error by the public polls:
Mike Parson -05.9%*Nicole Galloway +02.9%
Error based on my prediction:
Mike Parson -00.4%*Nicole Galloway +02.6%

MT:
My poll:
Greg Gianforte 53.8% Mike Cooney* 41.7% Other 01.4%
Public polls average:
Greg Gianforte 48.0% Mike Cooney* 41.9%
My prediction:
Greg Gianforte 55.7% Mike Cooney* 43.3% Other 01.0%
Results:
Greg Gianforte 54.2% Mike Cooney* 41.8% Other 04.0%
Error by the public polls:
Greg Gianforte -06.2% Mike Cooney* -00.1%
Error based on my prediction:
Greg Gianforte +01.5% Mike Cooney* +01.5% Other +03.0%


NH:My poll:
Chris Sununu 59.1% Dan Feltes*33.2% Other 03.9%
Public polls average:
Chris Sununu 60.2% Dan Feltes*36.0%
My prediction:
Chris Sununu 59.6% Dan Feltes*37.4% Other 03.0%
Results:
Chris Sununu* 65.2% Dan Feltes33.4% Other 01.4%
Error by the public polls:
Chris Sununu* -05.0% Dan Feltes +02.6%
Error based on prediction:
Chris Sununu* -05.6% Dan Feltes +04.0% Other +01.6%


NC:My poll:
Dan Forest 45.6% Roy Cooper* 48.5% Other 03.8%
Public polls average:
Dan Forest 42.6% Roy Cooper* 53.6%
My prediction:
Dan Forest 46.8% Roy Cooper* 50.2% Other 03.0%
Results:
Dan Forest 47.0% Roy Cooper*51.5% Other 01.5%
Error by the public polls:
Dan Forest -04.4% Roy Cooper*+02.1%
Error based on my prediction
Dan Forest -00.3% Roy Cooper*-01.3% Other +01.6%


ND:My poll:
Doug Burgum*68.5% Shelley Lenz 19.0% Other 06.0%
Public polls average:
Doug Burgum*56.0% Shelley Lenz 24.0%
My prediction:
Doug Burgum*72.3% Shelley Lenz 23.7% Other 04.0%
Results:
Doug Burgum*69.2% Shelley Lenz 26.7% Other 04.1%
Error by the public polls:
Doug Burgum*-13.2% Shelley Lenz -02.7%
Error based on my prediction:
Doug Burgum*+03.1% Shelley Lenz -03.0% Other -00.1%


UT:
My poll:
Spencer J. Cox*54.5% Christopher Peterson 25.2% Other 08.5%
Public polls average:
Spencer J. Cox*53.5% Christopher Peterson 24.0%
My prediction: 
Spencer J. Cox*60.9% Christopher Peterson 33.1% Other 06.0%
Results:
Spencer J. Cox*63.6% Christopher Peterson 30.8% Other 05.6%
Error by the public polls:
Spencer J. Cox*-10.1% Christopher Peterson -06.8%
Error based on my prediction:
Spencer J. Cox*-02.7% Christopher Peterson +02.3%Other +00.4%

VT:
My poll:
Phil Scott*56.8% David Zuckerman 27.3% Other 02.0%
Public polls average:
Phil Scott*55.0% David Zuckerman 24.0%
My prediction:
Phil Scott*62.8% David Zuckerman 34.7% Other 02.5%
Results:
Phil Scott*68.5% David Zuckerman 27.3% Other 04.2%
Error by the public polls:
Phil Scott*-13.5% David Zuckerman -03.3%Error based on my prediction:
Phil Scott*-05.7% David Zuckerman +07.4%Other -01.7%

WA:
My poll:
Loren Culp 40.0% Jay Inslee*52.6%
Public polls average:
Loren Culp 38.5% Jay Inslee*53.5%
My prediction:
Loren Culp 44.1% Jay Inslee*55.9%
Results:
Loren Culp 43.2% Jay Inslee*56.8%
Error by the public polls:
Loren Culp -04.7% Jay Inslee*-03.3%
Error based on my prediction:
Loren Culp +00.9% Jay Inslee*-00.9%

WV:
My poll:
Jim Justice*54.0% Ben Salango  37.0%
Public polls average:
Jim Justice*53.0% Ben Salango  34.5%
My prediction:
Jim Justice*59.0% Ben Salango  40.0% Other 01.0%
Results:
Jim Justice*64.0% Ben Salango  30.5% Other 05.5%
Error by the public polls:
Jim Justice*-11.0% Ben Salango  +04.0%Error based on my prediction:
Jim Justice*-05.0% Ben Salango  +09.5% Other -04.5%

Results



Final presidential electoral map by Benjamin Wolfmeier

/ benjaminstrehl / Leave a comment

Democrats will hold the House 221/214 but President Trump will win the PV this time 49/48 the electorate will be slightly more white and a little bit more male as in 2016! President Trump will win 15% of the african-american votes and 40% of the hispanic vote! President Trump will win the Independents in all swing-states ( AZ FL MI MN NC NH NV PA WI)

Trump vs. Biden (my polls vs. public poll vs. my prediction)

AK(03): 55.7% 41.4% Biden
Average of public polls: 46.5/42.0
My prediction: 56.2/41.8

AL(09): 62.0% 37.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 57.5/38.0
My prediction: 62.0/36.0

AR(06): 61.0% 34.7% Biden
Average of public polls: 56.7/37.0
My prediction: 62.1/35.9

AZ(11): 48.7% 45.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 46.8/47.7
My prediction: 50.5/47.5

CA(55): 36.6% 60.2% Biden
Average of public polls: 30.5/61.5
My prediction: 37.1/60.9

CO(09): 44.2% 52.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 39.0/48.5
My prediction: 44.9/53.1

CT(07): 41.8% 52.4% Biden
Average of public polls: 46.5/51.8
My prediction: 43.6/54.4

DC(03): 09.0% 89.5% Biden

DE(03): 44.1% 52.9% Biden
Average of public polls: 36.7/56.0
My prediction: 44.5/53.5

FL(29): 50.2% 45.9% Biden
Average of public polls: 46.7/48.1
My prediction: 50.1/47.9

GA(16): 50.2% 45.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 47.8/47.6
My prediction: 51.5/46.5

HI(04): 40.2% 55.9% Biden
Average of public polls: 28.0/61.0
My prediction: 41.2/56.8

IA(06): 49.3% 42.9% Biden
Average of public polls: 47.2/45.8
My prediction: 52.8/45.2

ID(04): 59.1% 36.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 60.6/37.0
My prediction: 60.5/37.5

IL(20): 42.0% 50.8% Biden
Average of public polls: 39.0/55.9
My prediction: 44.8/53.2

IN(11): 56.6% 39.4% Biden
Average of public polls: 49.0/42.0
My prediction: 57.7/40.3

KS(06): 56.7% 39.5% Biden
Average of public polls: 48.0/41.0
My prediction: 57.8/40.2

KY(08): 62.8% 35.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 56.0/39.0
My prediction: 62.8/35.2

LA(08): 58.0% 37.1% Biden
Average of public polls: 55.7/36.7
My prediction: 59.6/38.4

MA(11): 33.5% 62.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 30.0/68.0
My prediction: 34.5/63.5

MD(10): 37.8% 59.7% Biden
Average of public polls: 31.0/60.3
My prediction: 37.9/60.1

ME(04): 46.2% 48.7% Biden
Average of public polls: 40.5/52.5
My prediction: 48.8/50.1
ME-01: 40.3% 54.8% Biden
Average of public polls: 36.5/56.0
My prediction: 41.8/56.2
ME-02: 53.2% 41.9% Biden
Average of public polls: 48.5/46.0
My prediction: 54.5/43.5

MI(16): 48.4% 46.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 44.7/49.8
My prediction: 50.3/47.8

MN(10): 47.0% 45.8% Biden
Average of public polls: 43.7/48.0
My prediction: 49.4/48.6

MO(10): 55.3% 44.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 50.5/45.0
My prediction: 55.7/42.3

MS(06): 57.8% 39.6% Biden
Average of public polls: 56.0/41.0
My prediction: 58.1/39.9

MT(03): 56.3% 42.1% Biden
Average of public polls: 51.0/44.2
My prediction: 57.6/42.4

NC(15): 49.9% 46.2% Biden
Average of public polls: 47.9/47.4
My prediction: 50.9/47.1

ND(03): 66.0% 29.2% Biden
Average of public polls: 56.2/38.9
My prediction: 67.2/30.8

NE(05): 60.2% 29.5% Biden
Average of public polls: 56.0/43.0
My prediction: 63.9/34.1

NH(04) 46.6% 45.5% Biden
Average of public polls: 42.8/52.5
My prediction: 49.9/48.1

NJ(14): 42.2% 54.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 36.5/58.5
My prediction: 42.9/55.1

NM(05): 45.0% 51.8% Biden
Average of public polls: 42.0/54.0
My prediction: 45.6/52.4

NV(06): 47.9% 48.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 45.0/48.6
My prediction: 48.6/49.4

NY(29): 38.0% 59.9% Biden
Average of public polls: 29.0/61.0
My prediction: 38.0/60.0

OH(18): 53.5% 44.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 47.4/46.0
My prediction: 54.0/44.0

OK(07): 61.5% 36.9% Biden
Average of public polls: 59.5/36.0
My prediction: 61.5/36.9

OR(07): 43.7% 49.5% Biden
Average of public polls: 39.0/51.0
My prediction: 45.2/52.8

PA(20): 49.9% 47.1% Biden
Average of public polls: 46.3/49.2
My prediction: 50.2/47.8

RI(04): 38.9% 53.5% Biden
Average of public polls: 34.0/65.0
My prediction: 41.4/56.6

SC(09): 60.2% 38.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 50.0/42.5
My prediction: 60.0/38.0

SD(03): 64.3% 29.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 51.0/40.0
My prediction: 66.2/31.8

TN(11): 61.9% 34.8% Biden
Average of public polls: 53.0/42.0
My prediction: 62.5/35.5

TX(38): 52.3% 42.3% Biden
Average of public polls: 47.7/46.5
My prediction: 54.5/43.5

UT(06): 56.6% 36.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 50.5/41.0
My prediction: 59.1/38.9

VA(13): 45.6% 50.6% Biden
Average of public polls: 40.8/52.2
My prediction: 47.8/50.3

VT(03): 33.0% 56.2% Biden
Average of public polls: 32.0/56.0
My prediction: 36.7/61.3

WA(12): 39.2% 56.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 34.0/55.0
My prediction: 40.5/57.5

WI(10): 48.8% 47.7% Biden
Average of public polls: 44.1/50.7
My prediction: 49.6/48.4

WV(05): 69.5% 29.0% Biden
Average of public polls: 55.5/38.5
My prediction: 69.5/28.5

WY(03): 66.4% 29.2% Biden
Average of public polls: 66.0/33.0
My prediction: 67.5/30.5

President Donald Trump vs former VP Joe Biden: 320/218

Final senatorial map of Benjamin Wolfmeier

/ benjaminstrehl / Leave a comment

Senate2020

2018: GOP: 53 DEM: 45 IND: 02

2020: GOP: 53 DEM: 45 IND: 02  

Takeover GOP: AL MI

DEM:  AZ + CO

AL: 

My poll:

Tommy Tuberville 53.4% Doug Jones*39.0%

Average of public polls:

Tommy Tuberville 52.7% Doug Jones*42.3%

My prediction:

Tommy Tuberville 57.6% Doug Jones*42.4%

AK: 

My poll:

Dan Sullivan*49.7% Al Gross 37.9% John Howe 08.2%

Average of public polls:

Dan Sullivan*42.0% Al Gross 35.5%

My prediction:

Dan Sullivan*52.5% Al Gross 41.3% John Howe 06.2%

AR: 

My poll:

Tom Cotton*61.9% Dan Whitfield 10.6% Ricky Harrington 17.9%

Average of public polls:

Tom Cotton*62.3% Dan Whitfield 05.0% Ricky Harrington 28.7%

My prediction:

Tom Cotton*64.3% Dan Whitfield 05.0% Ricky Harrington 30.7%

AZ:

My poll:

Martha McSally* 48.1% Mark Kelly 47.3%

Average of public polls:

Martha McSally* 45.1% Mark Kelly 49.6%

My prediction:

Martha McSally* 48.5% Mark Kelly 51.0%

CO: 

My poll:

Cory Gardner*43.3% John Hickenlooper 50.8% Other 06.3%

Average of public polls:

Cory Gardner*39.5% John Hickenlooper 48.0%

My prediction:

Cory Gardner*44.1% John Hickenlooper 51.9% Other 04.0%

DE: 

My poll:

Lauren Witzke 39.4% Chris Coons* 54.1% Other 04.8%

Average of public polls:

Lauren Witzke 27.0% Chris Coons* 57.0%

My prediction:

Lauren Witzke 41.3% Chris Coons* 55.7% Other 03.0%

GA: 

My poll:

David Perdue*50.1% John Ossoff 42.6% Other 03.8%

Average of public polls:

David Perdue*46.9% John Ossoff 47.7% Other 02.8%

My prediction:

David Perdue*52.0% John Ossoff 45.0% Other 03.0%

GA: 

Kelly Loeffler, Republican 25.0%

Doug Collins, Republican 20.0%

Raphael Warnock, Democrat  23.5%

Matt Lieberman, Democrat   09.2%

Ed Tarver, Democrat         04.0%

ID: 

My poll:

Jim Risch* 64.5% Paulette Jordan 21.5% 

Average of public polls:  

Jim Risch* 53.0% Paulette Jordan 28.0%

My prediction:

Jim Risch* 70.8% Paulette Jordan 29.2%

IL: Mark Curran 00.0% Richard Durbin* 00.0%

No polls available

My prediction:

Mark Curran 42.0% Richard Durbin* 57.0%

IA: 

My poll:

Joni Ernst* 50.1% Theresa Greenfield 44.4% Other 02.8%

Average of public polls:

  Joni Ernst*46.5% Theresa Greenfield 46.0%

My prediction:

Joni Ernst* 51.7% Theresa Greenfield 46.3% Other 02.0%

KS: 

My poll:

Roger Marshall*50.7% Barbara Bollier 39.3%

Average of public polls:

Roger Marshall*46.0% Barbara Bollier 43.0%

My prediction:

Roger Marshall*56.2% Barbara Bollier 43.8%

KY: 

My poll:

Mitch McConnell* 53.7% Amy McGrath 40.8% Brad Barron 02.8%

Average of public polls:

Mitch McConnell* 51.0% Amy McGrath 42.3% Brad Barron 02.8%

My prediction:

Mitch McConnell* 55.4% Amy McGrath 42.1% Brad Barron 02.5%

LA: Bill Cassidy*51.0% Generic DEM 41.0%

No polls available

MA: 

My polls:

Kevin O`Connor 42.8% Ed Markey* 49.5%

Average of public polls:

Kevin O`Connor 40.0% Ed Markey* 57.5%

My prediction:

Kevin O`Connor 47.0% Ed Markey* 53.0%

ME:

My poll:

Susan Collins*46.4% Sarah Gideon 43.6% Max Linn 05.2%

Average of public polls:

Susan Collins*41.7% Sarah Gideon 47.3% Max Linn 05.2%

My prediction:

Susan Collins*48.8% Sarah Gideon 46.4% Max Linn 04.8%

MI: 

My poll:

John James 48.4% Gary Peters* 47.7%

Average of public polls:

John James 43.3% Gary Peters* 48.4%

My prediction:

John James 51.8% Gary Peters* 48.0%

MN: 

My poll:

Jason Lewis 45.7% Tina Smith* 44.6% Other 03.5%

Average of public polls:

Jason Lewis 42.3% Tina Smith* 47.3%

My prediction:

Jason Lewis 48.5% Tina Smith* 49.0% Other 02.5%

MS: 

My polls:

Cindy Hyde-Smith* 55.5% Mike Espy 37.0% Jimmy Edwards 03.0%

Average of public polls:

Cindy Hyde-Smith* 53.0% Mike Espy 43.0% Jimmy Edwards 03.0%

My prediction:

Cindy Hyde-Smith* 57.5% Mike Espy 39.5% Jimmy Edwards 03.0%

MT:

My polls:

Steve Daines*53.0% Steve Bullock 44.3% Other 00.3%

Average of public polls:

Steve Daines*48.8% Steve Bullock 46.4%

My prediction:

Steve Daines*54.0% Steve Bullock 45.5% Other 00.5%

NC:

My polls:

Thom Tillis* 49.0% Cal Cunningham 43.7% Others 06.1%

Average of public polls:

Thom Tillis* 44.3% Cal Cunningham 46.8% Others 06.1%

My prediction:

Thom Tillis* 49.9% Cal Cunningham 44.6% Others 05.5%

NE:

My polls:

Ben Sasse* 56.0% Chris Janicek 22.5% Gene Siadek 06.0%

Average of public polls:

    Ben Sasse* 47.0% Chris Janicek 18.0% Gene Siadek 06.0%

My prediction:

Ben Sasse* 65.6% Chris Janicek 30.4% Gene Siadek 04.0%

NH:

My polls:

Bryant Corky Messner 42.4% Jeanne Shaheen* 52.0% Other 02.6%

Average of public polls:

Bryant Corky Messner 39.2% Jeanne Shaheen* 54.0% Other 02.6%

My prediction:

Bryant Corky Messner 44.4% Jeanne Shaheen* 53.6% Other 02.0%

NJ:

My polls:

Rik Mehta 38.6% Cory Booker* 50.9%

Average of public polls:

Rik Mehta 30.3% Cory Booker* 56.0%

My prediction:

Rik Mehta 44.7% Cory Booker* 55.3%

NM:

My poll:

Mark Ronchetti 41.0% Ben Ray Lujan*46.3% Bob Walsh 04.9%

Average of public polls:

Mark Ronchetti 41.7% Ben Ray Lujan*50.0% Bob Walsh 04.9%

My prediction:

Mark Ronchetti 45.8% Ben Ray Lujan*50.2% Bob Walsh 04.0%

OK:

My poll:

Jim Inhofe* 55.0% Abby Broyles 34.9% Others 04.0%

Average of public polls:
 Jim Inhofe* 56.5% Abby Broyles 35.0% Others 04.0%

My prediction:

Jim Inhofe* 59.2% Abby Broyles 38.3% Others 02.5%

OR:

My poll:

Jo Rae Perkins 40.6% Jeff Merkley* 54.9% Other 02.4%

Average of public polls:

Jo Rae Perkins 35.0% Jeff Merkley* 55.0% Other 05.0%

My prediction:

Jo Rae Perkins 41.8% Jeff Merkley* 55.2% Other 03.0%

RI:

My poll:

Allen Waters 42.3% Jack Reed*50.0%

Average of public polls:

  Allen Waters 38.5% Jack Reed* 55.0%

My prediction:

Allen Waters 46.5% Jack Reed*53.5%

SC:

My poll:

Lindsay Graham*57.3% Jaime Harrison 38.0% Other 03.3%

Average of public polls:
Lindsay Graham*47.5% Jaime Harrison 43.0%

My prediction:

Lindsay Graham*58.2% Jaime Harrison 39.3% Other 02.5%

SD:

My poll:

Mike Rounds* 64.0% Daniel Ahlers29.0%

Average of public polls:

Mike Rounds* 60.0% Daniel Ahlers33.0%

My prediction:

Mike Rounds* 67.0% Daniel Ahlers33.0%

TN:

My poll: No polls available

Bill Hagerty*00.0% Marquita Bradshaw 00.0%

My prediction: Bill Hagerty*62.0% Marquita Bradshaw 35.0%

TX:

My poll:

John Cornyn*52.2% M. J. Hegar 39.3% Others 03.8%

Average of public polls:

John Cornyn*47.8% M. J. Hegar 41.0%

My prediction:

John Cornyn*54.2% M. J. Hegar 42.3% Others 03.5%

VA:

My poll:

Daniel Gade 43.4% Mark Warner*53.4%

Average of public polls:

Daniel Gade 38.3% Mark Warner*56.0%

My prediction:

Daniel Gade 45.2% Mark Warner*54.8%

WV:

My poll:

Shelley Moore Capito* 72.0% Paula Jean Swearengin23.0%

Average of public polls:
  Shelley Moore Capito* 60.0% Paula Jean Swearengin33.0%

My prediction:

Shelley Moore Capito* 74.2% Paula Jean Swearengin25.8%

WY:

My poll:

Cynthia Lummis* 67.0% Meran Ben-David 27.5%

Average of public polls:

Cynthia Lummis* 56.0% Meran Ben-David 26.0%

My prediction:

Cynthia Lummis* 69.5% Meran Ben-David 30.5%

Finale gubernatorial map by Benjamin Wolfmeier

/ benjaminstrehl / Leave a comment

Governor Races 2020

2019: GOP: 26 DEM: 24 IND: 00

2020: GOP: 27 DEM: 23 IND: 00
Toss-up: 

Take over: GOP: MT  

DE:
My poll:
Julianne Murray 39.8% John Carney*51.4% Other 05.4%Public polls average:
Julianne Murray 26.0% John Carney*55%
My prediction:
Julianne Murray 42.4% John Carney*53.6% Other 04.0%

IN:
My poll:
Eric Holcomb*50.9% Woody Myers 27.0% Donald Rainwater 13.1%
Public polls average:
Eric Holcomb*50.0% Woody Myers 39.0%
My prediction:
Eric Holcomb: 54.7 Woody Myers 33.8% Donadl Rainwater 11.5%

MO:
My poll:
Mike Parson 53.8%* Nicole Galloway 40.7%
Public polls average:
Mike Parson 51.3%* Nicole Galloway 43.5%
My prediction:
Mike Parson 56.8%* Nicole Galloway 43.2%

MT:
My poll:
Greg Gianforte 53.8% Mike Cooney* 41.7% Other 01.4%
Public polls average:
Greg Gianforte 48.0% Mike Cooney* 41.9%
My prediction:
Greg Gianforte 55.7% Mike Cooney* 43.3% Other 01.0%

NH:My poll:
Chris Sununu 59.1% Dan Feltes*33.2% Other 03.9%
Public polls average:
Chris Sununu 60.2% Dan Feltes*36.0%
My prediction:
Chris Sununu 59.6% Dan Feltes*37.4% Other 03.0%


NC:My poll:
Dan Forest 45.6% Roy Cooper* 48.5% Other 03.8%
Public polls average:
Dan Forest 42.6% Roy Cooper* 53.6%
My prediction:
Dan Forest 46.8% Roy Cooper* 50.2% Other 03.0%

ND:My poll:
Doug Burgum*68.5% Shelley Lenz 19.0% Other 06.0%
Public polls average:
Doug Burgum*56.0% Shelley Lenz 24.0%
My prediction:
Doug Burgum*72.3% Shelley Lenz 23.7% Other 04.0%


UT:
My poll:
Spencer J. Cox*54.5% Christopher Peterson 25.2% Other 08.5%
Public polls average:
Spencer J. Cox*53.5% Christopher Peterson 24.0%
My prediction: 
Spencer J. Cox*60.9% Christopher Peterson 33.1% Other 06.0%

VT:My poll:
Phil Scott*56.8% David Zuckerman 27.3% Other 02.0%
Public polls average:
Phil Scott*55.0% David Zuckerman 24.0%
My prediction:
Phil Scott*62.8% David Zuckerman 34.7% Other 02.5%

WA:My poll:
Loren Culp 40.0% Jay Inslee*52.6%
Public polls average:
Loren Culp 38.5% Jay Inslee*53.5%
My prediction:
Loren Culp 44.1% Jay Inslee*55.9%

WV:
My poll:
Jim Justice*54.0% Ben Salango  37.0%
Public polls average:
Jim Justice*53.0% Ben Salango  34.5%
My prediction:
Jim Justice*59.0% Ben Salango  40.0% Other 01.0%