IA: VT Senator Bernie Sanders, former VP Joe Biden and former IN Mayor Pete Buttigieg in a close race by CBS/YouGov

Party rules make 15% the typical cutoff for awarding delegates, and supporters can shift to other candidates if they don’t reach this threshold. So, it’s critical to look at voters’ second choices and who else they’re considering, too. Joe Biden could get a boost from his status as the second choice of those backing Amy Klobuchar, as well as from those polling lower. If they move to him on caucus night, he could see gains. Meanwhile, Warren is right on the line, and her backers’ second choice is Sanders, more so than Biden or Buttigieg. That would mean Sanders could stand to pick up even more delegates if Warren backers don’t make the cut in some places. If Warren holds at her current level or gains, this race will remain tight. All told, the caucuses look like they might very likely be decided by these kinds of local-level movements.

Bernie Sanders 26% (+3)
Joe Biden 25% (+2)
Pete Buttigieg 22% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren 15% (-1)
Amy Klobuchar 7% (-)


iowa poll




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