While the media remains obsessed with an increasingly pointless impeachment by the House and the even more dubious removal of the president by the Senate, political news of genuine electoral importance has slipped in under the rug.
According to two new polls, Trump has now gained popularity with African Americans—and the numbers are significant, even “bigly.”
Both polls—Rasmussen, which usually tilts Republican, and Emerson, which is considered even-handed—came out almost exactly the same, putting Trump’s support among blacks at a surprising, almost astonishing, 34 percent and 34.5 percent, respectively. Typically, Republicans poll in the single digits among blacks.
“Game changer” may be one of the great clichés of our time, but this would actually be one. If even remotely true, Democrats should be having a nervous breakdown. They depend more than ever on African Americans for success in elections. If Trump were to garner even 18 percent of the black vote, he would easily win in 2020. If he had anything close to the 34 percent, it would be a runaway, a disaster for the Democrats.
But is this accurate? Polls are fickle, as we know, and are often distorted by the skewed nature of the questions; but in this case, several factors lead me to believe there is truth to this.
One is, of course, economic. Due in great part to Trump’s policies, African American unemployment rates are the lowest on record, even for teenagers, and wages are rising, as they haven’t in years. This is likely not being overlooked at the kitchen table.
Almost equally important and working in tandem is the Kanye West factor. Wildly talented and justifiably one of the most popular entertainers in the world, the rapper has made a sensation wearing a MAGA hat, while telling an obvious truth: No group, blacks or anybody else, profits by putting all its political eggs in one party’s basket. That group is setting themselves up for exploitation.
It may be painful to hear that, but when it comes from West, young people especially are listening and agreeing. Being a Republican, even and possibly especially a Trump supporter, can be cool, if West does it.
Which leads to the Al Sharpton factor. How much longer will blacks follow the likes of exploitation artists who obviously prosper when other blacks fail—indeed, prosper because they fail? Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, and the rest of the victimologists (Larry Elder’s great term) prey on their people, raising money off their economic and social problems and, in essence, perpetuating them. This is the exact opposite of progress, masquerading under the rubric progressive.
In West’s world, the right approach isn’t to see yourself as a victim, but to improve yourself as an individual, to work hard, go to school, be entrepreneurial, and, of course, as we know from his latest hit and endeavors, believe and trust in God.
Would you follow West or would you follow Sharpton? The results of the decision are obvious, irrespective of the extreme differences in their talent.
Meanwhile, Trump has been doing his part, quietly (for him) going about wooing black voters with his message of economic opportunity at their schools and churches. His success has either been ridiculed or, more often, deliberately ignored by the mainstream media. They are loath to report what he is doing for fear that it might be good. Nevertheless, he is continuing and increasing his efforts going into the campaign.
In the larger political schema, this is about a turning away from the “identity politics” (actually a new form of segregation) so beloved by the Democrats and back to the color-blind society envisioned by Martin Luther King Jr. Wouldn’t it be ironic if the idealism of those days was finally realized with the help of Trump or an alliance of Trump and West? Stranger things have happened.
Approval of President Donald Trump rose to 34.5 percent among black registered voters in a recent Emerson poll.
The number is notable because only 8 percent of blacks voted for Trump in 2016, according to Cornell University’s Roper Center.
The poll of 1,092 registered voters was conducted Nov. 17–20, partly by automated landline calls and partly online. The same poll taken a month earliershowed approval for Trump’s presidency at 17.8 percent among blacks.
The pollster warns that results for subsets of voters have a higher margin of error than the 2.9 percentage points the poll has as a whole. For black voters, the margin is 8.3 percent, according to Spencer Kimball, assistant professor at Emerson College who oversees the polling.
But there doesn’t seem to be any issue with the data itself that could explain such a significant increase.
In November, Emerson interviewed 153 black voters, compared with 140 in October. There were slightly more Republicans in the November group (13.1 percent versus 10.2 percent in October). But there were also more Democrats (69.5 percent vs 64.1 percent).
There was no change to the methodology,” Kimball said in an email to The Epoch Times. “This could be attributed to variance within the subsets … and be an anomaly, or it could be the start of a trend. … I have noticed [Trump’s] approval with minority voters slightly higher than his 2016 vote totals and think he might do better with this vote than he did in 2016.”
The poll also showed significantly higher approval among Hispanic voters—38.2 percent in November compared to 26.2 percent the month earlier. Again, there were more Hispanic Republicans interviewed in November (16.8 percent vs 12.9 percent the month before), but not enough to explain the rise in Trump approval.
Overall, the poll showed Trump’s approval at 48.3 percent, up from 43.2 percent the month before.
Several other contemporary polls showed much lower Trump approval among blacks in November. The Economist/YouGov had the number at 16 percent among American adults (pdf). Morning Consult/Politico reported 18 percent among registered voters (pdf). Gallup showed 21 percent approval among non-white adults (pdf).
While Rasmussen was the most accurate in predicting Trump’s 2016 victory, polls proved largely inaccurate that election season.
At least part of the reason is that the polls are poorly designed, Richard Baris, director of Big Data Poll, previously told The Epoch Times.
Many pollsters only survey people online (YouGov, Morning Consult) or only on the phone (Marist, Gallup).
“There’s a lot of people who don’t want to tell you the truth,” Baris said. “They’re told what they should feel about an issue and they feel like … that live caller may be judging them.”
Both Rasmussen and Emerson use a mix of online and phone surveys and use automated systems for the calls.
Some pollsters also routinely under-represent independent voters and over-represent Democrats in their surveys.
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