The first question was about Presiden Trump’s approval rating, the results showed that 51.47% of voters approve of President Trump, 41.18% disapprove, and 7.35% have no opinion.
The second question voters were asked their preferred candidate in the Congressional District 6 race, the results were, 18.31% Jon Ossoff (D), 17.98% Karen Handel (R), 13.42% Bob Gray (R), 7.98% Judson Hill (R), 3.05% Amy Kremer (R), 2.82% Ron Slotin (D), 2.11% Dan Moody (R), 0.45% Bruce LeVell (R), while 33.90% were supporting another candidate or were undecided. TFG conducted this survey of 450+ respondents from a random stratified selection of likely 2017 special Congressional election voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.5.
Commenting on the survey, TFG Senior Strategist Robert Cahaly said, “President Trump’s approval numbers, the high Republican propensity of this district, and the coalescing of Democrat support behind Ossoff, create dual scenarios heading into the April 11th jungle (all parties) primary. Either the Republican-Trump supporters, energized by his victory and presidency dominate turnout, creating and all GOP runoff, or the Democrats organize and motivate their small base and take advantage of the competitiveness among the top few Republicans (most specifically Handel and Gray) to create a D vs. R runoff election on June 20th.”
Cahaly also stated, “We’ve already seen outside play a major role. Last week the Congressional Leadership Fund, (GOP) SuperPac, placed a 7-figure media-buy attempting to knock Ossoff off of his lead, and it appears to be working. Their theory in this game of Congressional special election Whac-A-Mole, is to hit the leading Dem enough to set an all-Republican runoff, but not so much that another Dem is elevated enough to contend. So far the Congressional Leadership Fund folks appear to be exceptional whackers.”
Cahaly concluded, “Noteworthy is the role senior voters play in special elections, and the way the finishing order changes among them (Handel in 1st at 19.38%, Gray in 2nd at 16.94%, and Ossoff in 3rd at 16.42%). Seniors usually represent less than 30% of the vote, however, the fact is, they are the most reliable voting block. While many seniors vote early, those who don’t aren’t usually encumbered by election day work or school schedules. We expect the senior turnout number to easily eclipse 40% on its way to possibly passing 50%. Handel and Gray are the only major candidates who improve their overall numbers as the senior participation increases.”
The Trafalgar Group is widely recognized as the best polling firm of the 2016 election cycle, correctly forecasting the results in key battleground and other states (PA, FL, NC, MI, OH, CO, GA) and exactly predicting the Trump electoral college margin of victory (306-232).