My analysis of the presidential election 2016

As I said this January 2016 this election won`t be another D+6-7 election like 2008/2012!
I used a conservative D+5 model for the polls and my predictions but the electorate was D+4 (D37 R33 I30) in the final end!
It was the highest turnout ever in a presidential race!
Donald Trump got 90% of his own party and 09% of the Dems and won the Independents 48/42
Hillary Clinton got 89% of her own party and 07% of the GOP
The victory of Donald Trump was the biggest republican victory since 1988
Donald Trump won the male voters 53/41 (Romney 52/45)
while Hillary Clinton won the female vote 54/42 (Obama 55/44) but lost white women 53/43 (Romney 56/42)
Donald Trump won the white voters 58/37 (Romney 59/39)
Hillary Clinton won black voters 88/08 (Obama 93/06)
Hillary Clinton won the latino voters 65/29 (Obama 71/27)
Hillary Clinton won the asian voters 65/29 (Obama 73/26)
Donald Trump won no degree voters 67/28 (Obama 64/35)

PRESIDENT – NATIONAL:
Donald Trump (R) 44.7%
Hillary Clinton(D) 43.8%
Gary Johnson (L) 04.6%
Jill Stein (G) 02.0%

Results:
Donald Trump (R) 46.6%
Hillary Clinton(D) 47.8%
Gary Johnson (L) 03.3%
Jill Stein (G) 01.0%

but swing states (AZ, CO, FL, IA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA and WI)
Donald Trump (R) 48.5%
Hillary Clinton (D) 46.6%

The House prediction: GOP: 231 DEM: 204
The House result: GOP: 238 DEM: 193

genusmap-php-3
AK:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 46.4/34.2 Gary Johnson 10.3% Jill Stein 04.5%
My prediction: Trump: 49.2/36.2/10.2/04.6
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 52.9/37.7 Gary Johnson 05.9% Jill Stein 01.8%
Error margin: -03.7/-01.5
The GOP lead went from 14% to 15.2= +01.2%
AL:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 53.1/38.1 Gary Johnson 03.2% Jill Stein 02.4%
My prediction: Trump: 58.0/36.4/03.2/02.4
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 62.9/34.6 Gary Johnson 02.1% Jill Stein 00.4%
Error margin: -04.9/+01.8
The GOP lead went from 22.2% to 28.3% = +06.1%
AR:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 57.5/35.8 Gary Johnson 04.3% Jill Stein 02.0%
My prediction: Trump: 57.8/35.9/04.3/02.0
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 60.4/33.8
Error margin: -02.6/+02.1
The GOP lead went from 23.7% to 26.6% = +02.9%
AZ:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 49.5/40.0 Gary Johnson 05.4% Jill Stein 02.5%
Poll average: Trump +04.0%
My prediction: Trump: 50.9/41.2/05.4/02.5
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 49.5/45.4 Gary Johnson 03.9% Jill Stein 01.2%
Error margin: +01.4/-04.2
The GOP lead went from 09.0% to 04.1% = -04.9%
PID went from R+9 to R+4 I used a R+4 sample too
Donald Trump won the Independents: 47/44
CA:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 35.5/56.8 Gary Johnson 04.7% Jill Stein 02.4%
My prediction: Clinton: 57.8/35.1/04.7/02.4
Poll average: Clinton +22.3%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 33.0/61.5 Gary Johnson 03.3% Jill Stein 01.8%
Error margin: +02.1/-03.7
The DEM lead went from 23.1% to 28.5% = +05.4%
PID went from D+17 to D+24 I used a D+14 sample
Hillary Clinton won the Independents: 50/37
The result is the biggest victory of a Democrat since 1936 in this state!
CO:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 42.0/41.5 Gary Johnson 06.7% Jill Stein 03.3% Evan McMullin 03.5%
My prediction: Clinton: 43.3/43.2/06.7/03.3/03.5
Poll average: Clinton +02.9%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 44.4/47.3 Gary Johnson 05.0% Jill Stein 01.3%
Error margin: -01.2/-04.0
The DEM lead went from 05.4% to 02.9% = -02.5%
PID went from D+05 to D+08 I used a R+01 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 45/42
CT:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 37.0/52.0 Gary Johnson 07.3% Jill Stein 03.7%
My prediction: Clinton: 51.8/37.5/07.0/03.7
Poll average: Clinton +11.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 41.2/54.5 Gary Johnson 03.0% Jill Stein 01.4%
Error margin: -03.7/-02.7
The DEM lead went from 17.3% to 13.3% = -04.0%
DC:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 09.3/82.6 Gary Johnson 03.9% Jill Stein 02.1%
My prediction: Clinton: 83.4/10.6/03.9/02.1
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 04.1/92.8 Gary Johnson 01.6% Jill Stein 01.4%
Error margin: +06.5/-09.4
The DEM lead went from 83.6% to 88.7% = +05.1%
DE:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 38.6/50.5 Gary Johnson 07.8% Jill Stein 03.1%
My prediction: Clinton: 51.0/39.0/07.3/02.7
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 41.9/53.4 Gary Johnson 03.3% Jill Stein 01.4%
Error margin: -02.9/-02.4
The DEM lead went from 18.6% to 11.5% = -07.1%
The result is the best showing for a Republican since 1988 in this state!
FL:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 48.8/43.9 Gary Johnson 03.2% Jill Stein 01.7%
My prediction: Trump: 48.8/45.3/03.2/01.7
Poll average: Trump +00.2%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 49.1/47.8 Gary Johnson 02.2% Jill Stein 00.7%
Error margin: -00.3/-02.5
The DEM lead went from 00.9% to a GOP lead of 01.3% = -02.2%
PID went from D+02 to R+01 I used a R+01 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 47/43
GA:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 48.8/44.2 Gary Johnson 05.8%
My prediction: Trump: 49.5/44.7/05.8
Poll average: Trump +04.8%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 51.3/45.6 Gary Johnson 03.1%
Error margin: -01.8/-00.9
The GOP lead went from 07.8% to 05.7% = -02.1%
PID went from R+2 to R+2 I used a R+6 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 52/41
HI:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 30.9/56.6 Gary Johnson 03.2% Jill Stein 03.2%
My prediction: Clinton: 61.5/34.1/03.2/01.2
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 30.0/62.2 Gary Johnson 03.7% Jill Stein 03.0%
Error margin: +04.1/-00.7
The DEM lead went from 42.7% to 32.2% = -10.5%
IA: *
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 48.6/40.2 Gary Johnson 05.6% Jill Stein 01.0% Evan McMullin 01.0% !!!
My prediction: Trump: 49.2/42.2/05.6/01.0
Poll average: Trump +03.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 51.8/42.2 Gary Johnson 03.7% Jill Stein 00.7%
Error margin: -02.6/-00.0
The DEM lead went from 05.8% to a GOP lead of 09.6% = -15.4%
PID went from a tie to R+3 and I used a R+3 sample too
Donald Trump won the Independents: 51/38
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1980 in this state!
ID:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 53.9/28.9 Gary Johnson 05.5% Jill Stein 01.5% Evan McMullen 08.3%
My prediction: Trump: 55.3/29.7/05.5/01.5/08.0
Poll average: Trump +19.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 59.2/27.6 Gary Johnson 04.1% Jill Stein 01.2% Evan McMullen 06.8%
Error margin: -03.9/+02.1
The GOP lead went from 31.7% to 31.6% = -00.1%
IL:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 40.6/49.3 Gary Johnson 05.0% Jill Stein 01.8%
My prediction: Clinton: 50.6/42.6/05.0/01.8
Poll average: Clinton +11.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 39.4/55.4 Gary Johnson 03.8% Jill Stein 01.4%
Error margin: +03.2/-04.8
The DEM lead went from 16.8% to 16.0% = -00.4%
PID went from D+17 to D+15 I used a D+10 sample
Hillary Clinton won the Independents: 44/43
IN:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 51.6/37.8 Gary Johnson 08.0%
My prediction: Trump: 53.2/38.8/08.0
Poll average: Trump +10.7%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 57.2/37.9 Gary Johnson 04.9%
Error margin: -04.0/+00.9
The GOP lead went from 10.2% to 19.3% = +09.1%
PID went from R+5 to R+12 I used a R+6 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 53/36

KS:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 55.6/35.6 Gary Johnson 07.6% Jill Stein 01.2%
My prediction: Trump: 55.9/35.3/07.6/01.2
Poll average: Trump +17.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 57.2/36.2 Gary Johnson 04.7% Jill Stein 02.0%
Error margin: -01.3/-00.9
The GOP lead went from 21.6% to 21.0% = -00.6%
KY:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 57.1/35.3 Gary Johnson 03.0% Jill Stein 02.3% Evan McMullin 01.0%
My prediction: Trump: 57.9/35.8/03.0/02.3
Poll average: Trump +15.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 62.5/32.7 Gary Johnson 02.8% Jill Stein 00.7%
Error margin: -04.6/+03.1
The GOP lead went from 22.7% to 29.8% = +07.1%
PID went from D+4 to R+07 I used a R+1 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 67/23
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican ever in this state!
LA:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 53.2/38.8 Gary Johnson 04.9% Jill Stein 01.2%
My prediction: Trump: 54.3/39.7/04.9/01.1
Poll average: Trump +12.8%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 58.1/38.4 Gary Johnson 01.9% Jill Stein 00.7%
Error margin: -03.8/+01.3
The GOP lead went from 17.2% to 19.7% = +02.5%
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1984 in this state!
MA:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 31.8/56.2 Gary Johnson 06.6% Jill Stein 02.6%
My prediction: Clinton: 57.9/32.9/06.6/02.6
Poll average: Clinton +29.4%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 33.5/60.8 Gary Johnson 04.2% Jill Stein 01.5%
Error margin: -00.6/-02.9
The DEM lead went from 23.2% to 27.3% = -04.1%
The result is the biggest victory of a Democrat since 1964 in this state!
MD:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 33.7/57.9 Gary Johnson 05.7% Jill Stein 02.5%
My prediction: Clinton: 33.7/58.1/05.7/02.5
Poll average: Clinton +33.4%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 35.3/60.5 Gary Johnson 02.9% Jill Stein 01.3%
Error margin: -01.6/-02.4
The DEM lead went from 26.1% to 25.2% = -00.9%
ME:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton: 43.1/44.6 Gary Johnson 06.5% Jill Stein 02.5%
My prediction: Clinton: 46/45/06.5/02.5
Poll average: Clinton +04.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 45.2/47.9 Gary Johnson 05.1% Jill Stein 01.9%
Error margin: -00.2/-01.9
The DEM lead went from 15.3% to 02.7% = -12.6%
PID went from D+05 to D+01 I used a D+02 sample
Hillary Clinton won the Independents: 46/41
The result is the best showing for a Republican since 1988 in this state and the first time ever that the EV are split!
ME-01:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton: 37.1/47.7 Gary Johnson 08.5% Jill Stein 04.2%
My prediction: Clinton: 49.3/38.0/08.5/04.2
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 39.0/54.0
The DEM lead went from 22.0% to 15.0% = -07.0%
ME-02:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton: 44.4/39.4 Gary Johnson 10.4% Jill Stein 03.5%
My prediction: Trump: 48.7/40.3/07.5/03.5
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 52.0/41.0
The DEM lead went from 08.0% to a GOP lead of 11.0% = -19.0%
MI:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 44.8/44.5 Gary Johnson 05.6% Jill Stein 02.8%
My prediction: Trump: 46.2/45.4/05.6/02.8
Poll average: Clinton +03.4%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 47.6/47.3 Gary Johnson 03.6% Jill Stein 01.1%
Error margin: -01.4/-01.9
The DEM lead went from 09.5% to a GOP lead of 00.3% = -09.8%
PID went from D+10 to D+09 I used a D+08 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 52/36
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1988 in this state!
MN:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 41.7/43.5 Gary Johnson 07.7% Jill Stein 01.9% Evan McMullin 01.0%
My prediction: Clinton: 46.2/43.2/07.7/01.9
Poll average: Clinton +10.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 45.4/46.9 Gary Johnson 03.9% Jill Stein 01.3%
Error margin: -02.2/-00.7
The DEM lead went from 07.7% to 01.5% = -06.2%
PID went from D+08 to D+02 I used a D+04 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 44/42
The result is the best showing for a Republican since 1984 in this state!
MO:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 53.9/37.9 Gary Johnson 04.7% Jill Stein 01.9%
My prediction: Trump: 54.3/38.1/04.7/01.9
Poll average: Trump +11.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 57.1/38.0 Gary Johnson 03.5% Jill Stein 00.9%
Error margin: -02.8/+00.1
The GOP lead went from 09.4% to 19.1% = +09.7%
PID went from D+2 to R+05 I used a R+6 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 61/28
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1984 in this state!
MS:
Polls:Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 51.2/40.9 Gary Johnson 03.9% Jill Stein 02.4%
My prediction: Trump: 52.2/41.5/03.9/02.4
Poll average: Trump +09.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 58.3/39.7 Gary Johnson 01.2% Jill Stein 00.3%
Error margin: -06.1/+01.8
The GOP lead went from 11.5% to 18.6% = +07.1%
MT:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 51.9/35.4 Gary Johnson 07.4% Jill Stein 02.4%
My prediction: Trump: 53.6/36.6/07.4/02.4
Poll average: Trump +15.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 56.5/36.0 Gary Johnson 05.6% Jill Stein 01.6%
Error margin: -02.9/+00.6
The GOP lead went from 13.6% to 20.5% = +06.9%
NC:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 50.9/43.8 Gary Johnson 03.7%
My prediction: Trump: 51.2/45.1/03.7
Poll average: Trump +01.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 50.5/46.7 Gary Johnson 02.8%
Error margin: +00.7/-01.6
The GOP lead went from 02.0% to 03.8% = +01.8%
PID went from D+6 to D+4 I used a D+4 sample too
Donald Trump won the Independents: 53/37
ND:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 51.7/34.2 Gary Johnson 12.1% Jill Stein 02.0%
My prediction: Trump: 51.9/34/12.1/02.0
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 64.1/27.8 Gary Johnson 06.3% Jill Stein 01.1%
Error margin: -12.2/+06.2
The GOP lead went from 19.6% to 36.3% = +16.7%
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1980 in this state!

NE:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 54.1/34.5 Gary Johnson 08.2% Jill Stein 02.9%
My prediction: Trump: 54.4/34.5/08.2/02.9
Poll average: Trump +27.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 60.3/34.0 Gary Johnson 04.7% Jill Stein 01.0%
Error margin: -05.9/+00.5
The GOP lead went from 21.8% to 26.3% = +04.5%
NE-01:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 53.4/32.4
My prediction: Trump: 53.4/32.4
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 58.0/36.0
NE-02:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 49.1/41.0
My prediction: Trump: 49.1/41
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 49.0/45.0
NE-03:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 64.8/23.1
My prediction: Trump: 64.8/23.1
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 74.0/20.0
NH:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 45.7/42.0 Gary Johnson 06.4% Jill Stein 02.0% Evan McMullin 01.9%
My prediction: Clinton: 46/44/06/02/02
Poll average: Clinton +00.6%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 47.2/47.6 Gary Johnson 04.2% Jill Stein 00.9%
Error margin: -03.2/-01.2
The DEM lead went from 05.6% to 00.4% = -05.2%
PID went from D+03 to D/R+00 I used a R+02 sample
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied with the Independents: 45/45
NJ:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 41.2/51.6 Gary Johnson 04.0% Jill Stein 02.2%
My prediction: Clinton: 49.6/44.2/04.0/02.2
Poll average: Clinton +10.9%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 41.8/55.0 Gary Johnson 01.9% Jill Stein 01.0%
Error margin: +02.4/-05.4
The DEM lead went from 17.8% to 13.2% = -04.6%
PID went from D+18 to D+16 I used a D+13 sample
Hillary Clinton won the Independents: 47/45
NM:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 41.0/45.4 Gary Johnson 10.8% Jill Stein 02.0% !!!
My prediction: Clinton: 46.2/41.0/10.8/02.0
Poll average: Clinton +05.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 40.0/48.3 Gary Johnson 09.3% Jill Stein 01.2%
Error margin: +01.0/-02.1
The DEM lead went from 10.2% to 08.3% = -01.9%
PID went from D+12 to D+14 I used a D+09 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 42/37/16
NV:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 50.2/44.2 Gary Johnson 03.9%
My prediction: Trump: 48.3/46.3/03.9/01.5
Poll average: Trump +00.8%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 45.5/47.9 Gary Johnson 03.3%
Error margin: +02.8/-01.6
The DEM lead went from 06.7% to 02.4% = -04.3%
PID went from D+10 to D+08 I used a D+08 sample too
Donald Trump won the Independents: 50/37
NY:
Polls:Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 37.2/53.2 Gary Johnson 05.0% Jill Stein 03.1%
My prediction: Clinton: 54/37.9/05.0/03.1
Poll average: Clinton +17.3%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 37.5/58.8 Jill Stein 01.4%
Error margin: +00.4/-04.8
The DEM lead went from 28.2% to 21.3% = -06.9%
PID went from D+23 to D+22 I used a D+21 sample
Hillary Clinton won the Independents: 49/42
OH:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 48.7/43.9 Gary Johnson 03.7% Jill Stein 01.8%
My prediction: Trump: 49.7/44.8/03.7/01.8
Poll average: Trump +03.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 52.1/43.5 Gary Johnson 03.2% Jill Stein 00.8%
Error margin: -02.4/+01.3
The DEM lead went from 03.0% to a GOP lead of 08.6% = -11.6%
PID went from D+07 to R+03 I used a D+02 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 51/37
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1988 in this state!
OK:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 57.9/32.8 Gary Johnson 07.2% 
My prediction: Trump: 59/33.8/07.2
Poll average: Trump +19.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 65.3/28.9 Gary Johnson 05.7%
Error margin: -06.3/+03.9
The GOP lead went from 33.5% to 36.4% = +02.9%
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1984 in this state!
OR:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 39.6/48.2 Gary Johnson 08.2% Jill Stein 04.0%
My prediction: Clinton: 49.2/41.8/05.0/04.0
Poll average: Clinton +08.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 41.1/51.7 Gary Johnson 04.8% Jill Stein 02.5%
Error margin: +00.7/-02.5
The DEM lead went from 12.1% to 10.6% = -01.5%
PID went from D+09 to D+10 I used a D+06 sample
Hillary Clinton won the Independents: 43/41
PA:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 47.9/46.1 Gary Johnson 02.5% Jill Stein 01.5%
My prediction: Trump: 48.2/47.8/02.5/01.5
Poll average: Clinton +01.9%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 48.8/47.6 Gary Johnson 02.4% Jill Stein 00.8%
Error margin: -00.6/+00.2
The DEM lead went from 05.4% to a GOP lead of 01.2% = -06.6%
PID went from D+10 to D+03 I used a D+06 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 48/41
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1988 in this state!
RI:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 36.5/53.0 Gary Johnson 07.6% Jill Stein 04.8%
My prediction: Clinton: 53.0/36.5/05.7/04.8
Poll average: Clinton +11.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 39.8/55.4 Gary Johnson 03.2% Jill Stein 01.4%
Error margin: -03.3/-02.4
The DEM lead went from 27.5% to 15.6% = -011.9%
The result is the best showing for a Republican since 1984 in this state!
SC:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 48.3/43.2 Gary Johnson 05.7% Jill Stein 02.4%
My prediction: Trump: 48.7/43.2/05.7/02.4
Poll average: Trump +06.3%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 54.9/40.8 Gary Johnson 02.3% Jill Stein 00.6%
Error margin: -06.2/+02.4
The GOP lead went from 10.5% to 14.1% = +03.6%
PID went from R+03 to R+19 I used a R+11 sample too
Donald Trump won the Independents: 47/43
SD:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 52.4/36.4 Gary Johnson 08.8% Darrell Castle 01.5% 
My prediction: Trump: 53.0/36.7/08.8
Poll average: Trump +10.7%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 61.5/31.7 Gary Johnson 05.6%
Error margin: -08.5/+05.0
The GOP lead went from 18.0% to 29.8% = +11.8%
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1952 in this state!
TN:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 52.9/36.6 Gary Johnson 07.6% Jill Stein 01.5%
My prediction: Trump: 56.3/36.6/05.6/01.5
Poll average: Trump +10.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 61.1/34.9 Gary Johnson 02.8% Jill Stein 00.6%
Error margin: -04.8/+01.7
The GOP lead went from 20.4% to 26.2% = +05.8%
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1972 in this state!
TX:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 51.4/38.4 Gary Johnson 05.3% Jill Stein 02.3%
My prediction: Trump: 53.0/39.4/05.3/02.3
Poll average: Trump +11.7%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 52.6/43.4 Gary Johnson 03.2% Jill Stein 00.8%
Error margin: +00.4/-04.0
The GOP lead went from 15.8% to 09.2% = -06.6%
PID went from R+9 to R+09 I used a R+6 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 52/38
The result is the weakest victory of a Republican since 1996 in this state!

UT:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 40.9/26.9 Gary Johnson 03.6% Jill Stein 01.6% Evan McMullen 25.7% 
My prediction: Trump: 40.9/26.9/03.6/01.6/27
Poll average: Trump +15.3%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 45.9/27.8 Gary Johnson 03.4% Jill Stein 00.8% Evan McMullen 21.0%
Error margin: -05.0/-00.9
The GOP lead went from 47.9% to 18.1% = -29.8%
PID went from R+29 to R+24 I used a R+30 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 42/27/22
The result is the weakest victory of a Republican since 1964 in this state!

VA:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 43.7/44.3 Gary Johnson 04.8% Jill Stein 01.7% Evan McMullen 01.4%
My prediction: Clinton: 47.1/45.0/04.8/01.7/01.4
Poll average: Clinton +05.0%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 45.0/49.9 Gary Johnson 03.0% Jill Stein 00.7%
Error margin: -00.0/-02.8
The DEM lead went from 03.9% to 04.9% = +01.0%
PID stayed at D+07 I used a D+07 sample too
Donald Trump won the Independents: 48/43
VT:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 32.9/54.8 Gary Johnson 07.8% Jill Stein 04.6%
My prediction: Clinton: 54.8/34.9/05.9/04.6
Poll average: Clinton +24.8%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 32.6/61.1 Gary Johnson 03.4% Jill Stein 02.3%
Error margin: +02.3/-06.3
The DEM lead went from 35.6% to 28.5% = -07.1%
WA:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 40.1/49.7 Gary Johnson 06.5% Jill Stein 02.4%
My prediction: Clinton: 50.2/40.9/06.5/02.4
Poll average: Clinton +14.3%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 38.2/54.4 Gary Johnson 04.9% Jill Stein 01.7%
Error margin: +02.7/-04.2
The DEM lead went from 14.8% to 16.2% = +01.4%
PID went from D+013 to D+14 I used a D+10 sample
Hillary Clinton won the Independents: 48/40
WI:*
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 44.1/45.5 Gary Johnson 06.7% Jill Stein 02.6%
My prediction: Clinton: 45.9/44.8/06.7/02.6
Poll average: Clinton +06.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 47.9/46.9 Gary Johnson 03.6% Jill Stein 01.1%
Error margin: -03.1/-01.0
The DEM lead went from 06.9% to a GOP lead of 01.0% = -07.9%
PID went from D+05 to D+01 I used a D+02 sample
Donald Trump won the Independents: 50/40
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican since 1984 in this state!

WV:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 59.2/31.9 Gary Johnson 05.6% Jill Stein 03.3%
My prediction: Trump: 61/31/05/03
Poll average: Trump +22.5%
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 68.7/26.5 Gary Johnson 03.2% Jill Stein 01.1%
Error margin: -07.7/+04.5
The GOP lead went from 26.7% to 42.2% = +15.5%
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican ever in this state!
WY:
Polls: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 60.6/27.1 Gary Johnson 10.5% Jill Stein 02.3%
My prediction: Trump: 61/ 26/10/03
Results: Donald Trump/Hillary Clinton 70.1/22.5 Gary Johnson 05.3% Jill Stein 01.0%
Error margin: -09.1/+03.5
The GOP lead went from 40.8% to 47.6% = +06.8%
The result is the biggest victory of a Republican ever in this state!

Prediction:
Donald Trump 302
Hillary Clinton 236

Results:
Donald Trump 306
Hillary Clinton 232

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