National presidential race:
The new ABS/WP poll used a D+10 sample and only got Hillary +2 46/44 there“s no way 2016 will be higher D+ as in 2008&2012
so if you use their breakdown numbers to a realistic sample you get a tie!
In thier sample Hillary gets 88% of her base and 05% crossover voters and lose the Independenst 38/43 to Trump who gets 90% of the GOP and 08% crossover votes: In 2012 the election was 38D 32R and 30I and this year will be something like D+5 but let`s go conservative and say it will be D+5 like 37D 32R and 31I:
Hillary Clinton: 45.9%
Donald Trump: 45.1%
Gary Johnson: 04.1%