State by state polls and map by Morning Consult

Hillary Clinton would top Donald Trump 321-195 in electoral votes to clinch the White House if the election were held today, according to an extensive Morning Consult analysis of registered voters.

But the 2016 presidential race is far from over. The leading candidate is within the margin of error in nine states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. When those states are removed from the count, the former secretary of State garners 258 electoral votes to the New York businessman’s 164.

The analysis is the third time Morning Consult has provided a complete look at the electoral college map. Voter sentiment has shifted in a number of key states since our last survey, which was released just before the political conventions. Our analysis also provides a snapshot into how Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein would affect the Electoral College count for Clinton and Trump.

The Democratic nominee sports small gains over Trump in Florida, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The Republican standard bearer leads narrowly in Arizona, New Mexico and North Carolina.

Georgia and Iowa remain pure toss-ups, with both candidates deadlocked at 40 percent.

How the Race Has Changed Since the Conventions
As the race has progressed following both parties’ political conventions in July, voter sentiment has shifted in a number of states.

Trump’s grip on Arizona is slipping. While Ohio voters leaned toward him before, Clinton has now consolidated their support. The Democratic nominee has also improved her standing in Nevada and Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, the Republican nominee has made gains in New Mexico and Georgia.

State by state:   Hillary Clinton   Donald Trump   Gary Johnson   Jill Stein

AK: 26.4 / 39.6 / 17.6 / 02.1

AL: 28 /49.5 / 07.7/ 02.8

AR: 28.5 / 44.8 / 09.2 / 04.7

AZ: 35.3 / 38 / 10 / 03.8

CA: 48. 6 / 26.9 / 06.5 / 04.9

CO: 39.2 / 30.9 / 11.1 / 05.4

CT: 42.3 / 30.3 / 09.7 / 03.5

DC: 63.6 / 13.4 / 04.9 / 05.3

DE: 41.6 / 31.8 / 08.3 / 04.2

FL: 38.4 / 37.5 / 07.3 / 3.7

GA: 36.8 / 38.6 / 08.4 / 03.1

HI: 47.2 / 23.9 / 09.1 / 05.5

IA: 36.6 / 35.5 / 08.8 / 04.3

ID: 26.2 / 46.7 / 10.6 / 03.5

IL: 45.2 / 29.4 / 08.5 / 03.8

IN: 30.9 / 41.4 / 10.9 / 03.4

KS: 26.6 / 42.8 / 14.4 / 02.9

KY: 31.1 / 42.5 / 08.5 / 03.8

LA: 29.6 / 43.4 / 09.7 / 03.4

MA: 44.1 / 28 / 09.8 / 05.0

MD: 47.2 / 26.3 / 07.9 / 03.7

ME: 37.8 / 35.3 / 08.2 / 05.1

MI: 38.8 / 32.4 / 08.4 / 05.5

MN: 36.4 / 34.4 / 10 / 04.1

MO: 32.8 / 38.8 / 10.2 / 4.0

MS: 31.8 / 44.2 / 08.0 / 02.8

MT: 30.8 / 42.5 / 09.5 / 04.4

NC: 35.8 / 38.5 / 09.5 / 04.4

ND: 28.0 / 42.0 / 12.4 / 04.2

NE: 29.2 / 40.8 / 13.1 / 04.5

NH: 35.7 / 34.9 / 10.4 / 04.7

NJ: 40.2 / 31.9 / 09.9 / 03.8

NM: 35.9 / 34.7 / 13.7 / 03.0

NV: 38.4 / 36.7 / 08.0 / 03.5

NY: 48.5 / 28.6 / 06.2 / 03.8

OH: 37.2 / 35.3 / 09.4 / 03.8

OK: 24.6 / 48.5 / 11.4 / 03.0

OR: 41.4 / 33.4 / 06.9 / 05.2

PA: 37.4 / 36.5 / 09.0 / 03.8

RI: 45.1 / 29.8 / 07.3 / 03.8

SC: 33.2 / 42.1 / 07.8 / 03.6

SD: 26.5 / 42.9 / 12.5 / 04.7

TN: 29.0 / 46.9 / 08.2 / 03.0

TX: 32.3 / 39.9 / 09.1 / 04.1

UT: 21.5 / 41.9 / 20.0 / 03.4

VA:39.6 / 34.2 / 09.5 / 03.5

VT: 44.2 / 28.2 / 07.4 / 06.6

WA: 40.4 / 32.2 / 08.4 / 04.6

WI: 37.7 / 34.8 / 09.4 / 04.0

WV: 26.0 / 47.2 / 11.4 / 02.5

WY: 19.2 / 48.2 / 17.0 / 02.2

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50-State Poll: Hillary Clinton Still Leads Where It Matters

 

 

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